TYPHOON PEDRING (NESAT) IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO CAMARINES SUR...AND IS NOW MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN AURORA...VERY NEAR THE TOWN OF CASIGURAN...OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUES TO RECEDE. SOUTHWEST MONSOON (HABAGAT)  NOW DOMINATES THE WEATHER SITUATION HERE IN THE PROVINCE . STORM WARNING SIGNAL NUMBER TWO (2) HAS BEEN LOWERED TO NUMBER ONE (1).

*THIS WILL BE THE LAST AND FINAL CAMSUR ADVISORY ON TYPHOON PEDRING.

CURRENT INFORMATION

TIME: : 6 AM TODAY TUESDAY SEP 2
POSITION: LAT 16.3 N, LON 122.2 E
DISTANCE FROM 1ST DISTRICT: 285 KM NNW OF RAGAY
DISTANCE FROM 2ND DISTRICT: 291 KM NNW OF LIBMANAN
DISTANCE FROM 3RD DISTRICT: 319 KM NNW OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE FROM 4TH DISTRICT: 327 KM NW OF CARAMOAN
DISTANCE FROM 5TH DISTRICT: 347 KM NNW OF IRIGA CITY
1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS: 195-240 KPH
10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS: 140-165 KPH
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST AT 19 KPH
TOWARDS: QUIRINO-SOUTHERN ISABELA AREA

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CURRENT / POTENTIAL EFFECTS

OUTER RAINBANDS - has started to recede across Camarines Sur...however passing light rains can still be expected.

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FORECAST OUTLOOK / POSITIONS

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NESAT (PEDRING) will continue moving WEST TO WNW TRACK troughout the forecast period with a slight decrease on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will continue to move farther away from Camarines Sur.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual weakening will be expected today as the system traverses Luzon.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). NESAT is now a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 905 kilometers (490 nautical miles). At 2:40 AM (18:40 GMT) this morning, Typhoon2000.com Automated Weather Station in Naga City has recorded wind gust of 55 kph blowing from the SW. Meanwhile, the current barometer readings as of this update is at 997.7 millibars...while the 31-hr Rainfall Accumulation over the station is now at 209.8 mm.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Over the West Philippine Sea...just a Tropical Storm (TS) after crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon...about 182 km WSW of Vigan, Ilocos Sur [2AM SEP 28: 17.4N 118.7E @ 110kph].

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Regains Typhoon status as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 424 km SSE of Hong Kong [2AM SEP 29: 18.5N 115.2E @ 130kph].

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:  Gaining strength slightly as it approaches Hainan Island, along the coast of Southern China...about 105 km East of Northern Hainan [2AM SEP 30: 19.6 112.0E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

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HIGH WINDS

Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will continue to prevail across the 5 Districts of Camarines Sur today...with some improvements of the weather later today & tomorrow.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas Camarines Sur. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region.

INLAND FLOODING

RECEDING OF FLOODWATERS across the low-lying and hazard-prone areas of Camarines Sur will be expected in the coming days.

LANDSLIDES