TYPHOON PEDRING (NESAT) NOW BEGINNING TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF CAMARINES SUR...OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAINS ACROSS THE PROVINCE OVERNIGHT. STORM WARNING SIGNAL NUMBER THREE (3) NOW HOISTED.

CURRENT INFORMATION

TIME: : 6 PM TODAY MONDAY SEP 26
POSITION: LAT 15.8 N, LON 124.4 E
DISTANCE FROM 1ST DISTRICT: 281 KM NE OF RAGAY
DISTANCE FROM 2ND DISTRICT: 268 KM NE OF LIBMANAN
DISTANCE FROM 3RD DISTRICT: 277 KM NNE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE FROM 4TH DISTRICT: 232 KM NE OF CARAMOAN
DISTANCE FROM 5TH DISTRICT: 288 KM NNE OF IRIGA CITY
1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS: 150-185 KPH
10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS: 130-160 KPH
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW AT 22 KPH
TOWARDS: AURORA-QUIRINO-ISABELA AREA

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CURRENT / POTENTIAL EFFECTS

OUTER RAINBANDS - continues to spread and affecting Camarines Sur.

24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of 251 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the eye of PEDRING.

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FORECAST OUTLOOK / POSITIONS

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NESAT (PEDRING) will continue moving WNW troughout the forecast period with a slight decrease on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will pass more or less 250 km to the north of Camarines Sur tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual strengthening will continue during the next couple of hours, prior to landfall over Northern Aurora.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). NESAT is now a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 905 kilometers (490 nautical miles). Meanwhile, land observation from the Typhoon2000.com Automated Weather Station in Naga City has been observing wind gust of 35 kph blowing from the WSW and barometer readings of 997.2 millibars. The Rainfall Accumulation over the station since 12AM is now at 173.2 mm, with average rain rate of 8 to 60 mm/hr (light to heavy).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS), after crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon...just along the northern shores of La Union...about 33 km North of San Fernando, La Union [2PM SEP 27: 16.9N 120.3 @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Regains Typhoon status as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 496 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM SEP 28: 18.2N 115.9E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Gaining strength slightly as it approaches the northern part of Hainan Island, along the coast of Southern China...about 210 km East of Qionghai, Hainan [2PM SEP 29: 19.3 112.5E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

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HIGH WINDS

Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along the 5 Districts of Camarines Sur tonight...becoming Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) along the coastal areas of the 4TH DISTRICT .

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of the  4TH DISTRICT. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region.

INLAND FLOODING

WIDESPREAD FLOODING - will be expected along the low-lying areas and hazard-prone areas of Camarines Sur today until Tuesday.

LANDSLIDES

LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES - highly possible along the steep slopes of CAMARINES SUR today until Tuesday.