TYPHOON PEDRING (NESAT) CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...WILL PASS NORTH OF CAMARINES SUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PROVINCE. STORM WARNING SIGNAL NUMBER TWO REMAINS IN EFFECT.
TIME: : 12 PM TODAY MONDAY SEP 26
POSITION: LAT 15.5 N, LON 125.2 E
DISTANCE FROM 1ST DISTRICT: 320 KM NE OF RAGAY
DISTANCE FROM 2ND DISTRICT: 295 KM NE OF LIBMANAN
DISTANCE FROM 3RD DISTRICT: 302 KM NE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE FROM 4TH DISTRICT: 242 KM NE OF CARAMOAN
DISTANCE FROM 5TH DISTRICT: 303 KM NE OF IRIGA CITY
1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS: 150-185 KPH
10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS: 120-150 KPH
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW AT 24 KPH
TOWARDS: AURORA-QUIRINO AREA
OUTER RAINBANDS - continues to spread and affecting Camarines Sur.
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the eye of PEDRING.
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (PEDRING) is expected to start moving WNW troughout the forecast period with a slight decrease on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will pass more or less 300 km to the north of Camarines Sur this afternoon through the evening.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual strengthening will continue during the next couple of hours.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). NESAT is now a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 905 kilometers (490 nautical miles). Meanwhile, land observations from the Typhoon2000.com Automated Weather Station in Naga City has already recorded wind gust of 40 kph blowing from the West at 9:24 AM local time and barometer readings of 999.3 millibars. The Rainfall Accumulation over the station since 12AM is now at 100.1 mm, with rain rate of 13 to 23mm/hr.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies to a Category 3 Typhoon as it makes landfall over Aurora...about 15 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora [8AM SEP 27: 16.3N 122.2 @ 185kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Regains Typhoon status as it moves out into the West Philippine Sea...about 265 km West of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM SEP 28: 17.5N 117.9E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Gaining strength slightly as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) towards Southern China...about 405 km ESE of Hainan Island, Southern China [8AM SEP 29: 18.6 114.4E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along the 5 Districts of Camarines Sur today...becoming Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) along the 4TH DISTRICT this afternoon through the evening.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of the 4TH DISTRICT. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING - will be expected along the low-lying areas and hazard-prone areas of Camarines Sur beginning today until Tuesday or Wednesday.
LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES - highly possible along the steep slopes of CAMARINES SUR today until Tuesday or Wednesday.