TYPHOON PEDRING (NESAT) SLOWS DOWN AS IT CONTINUES TO GAIN INTENSITY...OUTER RAINBANDS STARTS TO SPREAD INTO CAMARINES SUR...STORM SIGNAL NUMBER ONE REMAINS HOISTED ACROSS THE PROVINCE.
TIME: : 6 PM TODAY SUNDAY SEP 25
POSITION: LAT 14.7 N, LON 128.6 E
DISTANCE FROM 1ST DISTRICT: 633 KM ENE OF RAGAY
DISTANCE FROM 2ND DISTRICT: 612 KM ENE OF LIBMANAN
DISTANCE FROM 3RD DISTRICT: 595 KM ENE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE FROM 4TH DISTRICT: 527 KM ENE OF CARAMOAN
DISTANCE FROM 5TH DISTRICT: 579 KM ENE OF IRIGA CITY
1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS: 130-160 KPH
10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS: 105-135 KPH
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST AT 24 KPH
TOWARDS: AURORA-QUIRINO AREA
OUTER RAINBANDS - now spreading and affecting Camarines Sur.
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of PEDRING.
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (PEDRING) is expected to start moving WNW troughout the forecast period with a slight decrease on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will pass more or less 250 km to the north of Camarines Sur tomorrow afternoon through the evening.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual strengthening will continue during the next couple of days...and NESAT could be near-Super Typhoon strength before it makes landfall early Tuesday.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles). NESAT remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles). Possible increase in its circulation size is likely as the system moves into the warm Philippine Sea in the next couple of days.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies to a Category 3 Typhoon as it passes to the north of Bicol Region...about 233 km NNE of Naga City, PH [2PM SEP 26: 15.4N 124.3 @ 205kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakened temporarily to Category 1 as it traverses Luzon...just along the West Coast of La Union...about 24 km WNW of San Fernando, La Union [2PM SEP 27: 16.7N 120.1E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies over the West Philippine Sea (aka. South China Sea)...exits PAR...about 460 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur, PH [2PM SEP 28: 18.2 116.1E @ 150kph].
**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that NESAT (PEDRING) will continue moving Westward and make landfall over Northern Quezon & Southern Aurora instead...cutting across Central Luzon...and exiting along Pangasinan-Northern Zambales Area. This scenario may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge northeast of the typhoon will not weaken & extends westward.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along the 5 Districts of Camarines Sur beginning tonight...becoming Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) along the 4TH DISTRICT tomorrow.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of the 4TH DISTRICT. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING - will be expected along the low-lying areas and hazard-prone areas of Camarines Sur beginning tomorrow until Tuesday or Wednesday.
LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES - highly possible along the steep slopes of CAMARINES SUR tonight until Tuesday.